2023 Virginia Elections Recap

By Catherine Ford
Commonwealth Strategy Group

Disclaimer: This recap was updated Wednesday morning (11/8) and the results are tentative. As it stands now, the Democrats retained the majority in the Senate and have taken the majority in the House of Delegates. There are still some undecided races and there will likely be recounts. We will keep you apprised if/when results change. 

On November 7, 2023, all 140 legislative seats (State Senate and House of Delegates) were up for election. With the first election since the new district lines were drawn under the redistricting process adopted by voters in 2020, this election cycle brought: historic turnover with record numbers of retirements, incumbents losing primaries, and brand-new districts for everyone playing a role in the skyrocketing cost and contentious nature of these legislative campaigns. 

There was a lot of uncertainty going into yesterday on the potential outcome. Governor Youngkin was campaigning all over Virginia for Republican candidates, with the hope of flipping the Senate and having a Republican trifecta. There was a lot of speculation about how and if the recent Supreme Court decision regarding abortion would impact some races. 

After numerous close races, the results are Democratic control of both houses: 51D-48R and one still too close to call (Petersburg race- Kim Taylor (R) and Kimberly Pope Adams (D)); and 21D-18R and one too close to call (Williamsburg race- Monty Mason (D) and Danny Diggs (R)).  Keep in mind that there are still provisional ballots to be counted and that could happen as late as Friday. Provisional ballots are those ballots where the voter’s registration is called into question and the registrar needs time to resolve it. Some of those ballots will end up qualifying and counting toward the final vote. Both the Petersburg race and Williamsburg race will likely have a recount due to the close nature of the votes.  

So, what happens next? Assuming the current results stand, and the Democrats will control both chambers, we will prepare for leadership announcements, committee chair negotiations and committee assignments. We could also see changes to the House and Senate clerk’s offices, like we did in 2020.  

It is important to remember that the Governor can veto legislation and neither chamber has obtained a “veto-proof” majority. This will likely result in the Democratic legislature passing bills that are then vetoed by the Governor. In order for anything to be passed and signed into law, there will have to be compromise from both sides, particularly as the Governor proposes his legacy budget this year. Mental health will still be top of mind for policymakers and Democrats are just as likely to champion undesirable policies (i.e. psychologists prescribing) in the name of a win. Indeed, it was the Democratic governor of Colorado who happily championed the RxP legislation there.

Key Race Results

State Senate: Democrats control the chamber- 21D-18R, 1 undecided
(Pre-election, Democratic control)

Heading into Election Day, Democrats were considered safe in 17 seats, while Republicans had 16 safe districts. That left 7 seats that would determine control of the 40-member chamber. Please note, the Lt. Governor can break ties in the State Senate so 20 Republican members would be considered a Republican majority. 

Below are the seven districts that decided control of the chamber. The winner’s name is in bold. 

• District 4 – (D)Trish White-Boyd/(R) David Suetterlein*
  • This race in the Roanoke area was considered slightly competitive due to past support of Democratic candidates (with the exception of Terry McAuliffe in 2021). Senator Suetterlein ran a solid campaign with a large financial advantage. 
• District 16 – (D) Schuyler VanValkenburg/(R) Siobhan Dunnavant*
  • Considered the most Democratic of all the toss-up seats, Del. VanValkenburg, a moderate teacher challenged Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, a moderate doctor, in the Henrico area. This seat was one of the most expensive of the election cycle, where abortion and library books were the most popular issues of campaign.
• District 17 – (D) Clint Jenkins/(R) Emily Brewer
  • This newly drawn, open Senate seat in Suffolk was considered very swingy with Governor Youngkin winning it in 2021 with 52% but former Congresswoman Luria winning it by 51%. Del. Brewer emerged from an expensive primary and hit the ground running with momentum and a well-financed campaign. Del. Clint Jenkins had run a campaign more focused on media, rather than a ground game. This district came down to voter turnout. 
• **District 24 – (D) Monty Mason*/(R) Danny Diggs- UNDECIDED
  • Senator Mason was considered the most endangered incumbent heading into the 2023 Election cycle. The new district, which includes Williamsburg, York, and Poquoson City, is the swingiest of swing districts. While Mason currently represents Williamsburg, Diggs is the Sherriff of Poquoson. This race was extremely expensive and filled with explosive accusations of candidate positions and reputations. 
• District 27 – (D) Joel Griffin/(R) Tara Durant/(I)Monica Gary
  • This open seat is one of the most fascinating of the cycle with a 3^rd party candidate on the ballot as well as write in (by Matt Strickland, who lost to Del. Tara Durant in the primary). Monica Gary, the independent, is currently on the Board of Supervisors in Stafford County, winning that seat as an independent in 2021. Joel Griffin, a small business owner in Fredericksburg, also had a competitive democratic primary in June. With multiple names on the ballot, this district was one of the hardest to predict. 
• District 30 – (D) Danica Roem/(R) Bill Woolf
  • Del. Danica Roem was unopposed for the Democratic nomination in this seat. Bill Woolf won the Republican primary in June. This district is considered lean democrat and politically stayed under the radar during the campaign. 
• District 31- (D) Russet Perry/(R) Juan Pablo Segura
  • Throughout the campaign, this newly drawn district was expected to be the most expensive of the cycle- with both state and national money flowing into the area. Loudoun County was considered safe for Republicans prior to 2017 but flipped blue for a few cycles. In 2021, Loudoun County Public Schools became ground zero and this district was narrowly won by Governor Youngkin. 

House of Delegates: Democrats control the chamber- 51D-48R- 1 undecided
(Pre-Election, Republican control)

Heading into Election Day, there are 15 seats that would determine control of the 100-member chamber. 

Below are the 15 districts that decided control of the chamber. The winner’s name is in bold. 

• District 21 – (D) Josh Thomas/(R) John Stirrup
  • This open seat in Prince William County is a tossup seat; it voted blue in the 2022 congressional race and red in the 2021 gubernatorial race. This race drew attention over the summer when John Stirrup was recorded as supporting a complete abortion ban. Due to the competitive nature and the DC media market, this district was one of the most expensive house races. 
• District 22 – (D) Travis Nembhard/(R) Ian Lovejoy
  • Another race in Prince William County, competitive but leans Republican. Both candidates have impressive resumes, community ties and the ability to raise big money. 
• District 30 – (D) Rob Banse/(R) Geary Higgins
  • A Loudoun County District that on paper should not have been competitive and went red in the last two elections. Geary Higgins is a former school board member, former Supervisors and ran an unsuccessful campaign for State Senate in 2019. However, Rob Banse is a pastor with deep community ties and had outraised Higgins and made this district one to watch. 
• District 41: – (D) Lily Franklin/(R) Chris Obenshain
  • This Roanoke based district voted for Governor Youngkin by 10 points. However, as this district is an open seat that includes Virginia Tech, it has forced both parties to work hard to communicate with voters. 
• District 57 – (D) Susanna Gibson/(R) David Owen
  • Henrico County Open Seat that drew national attention when it was revealed that Susanna Gibson had videos on an internet website. The district is entirely within SD 16, bringing this district lots of attention. In September, Gibson lost support of the Democratic Caucus and multiple organizations, changing this from a clear swing district to a leans Republican. 
• District 58 – (D) Rodney Willett*/(R) Riley Shia
  • Del. Willet was one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in a district that leans D. This is his 3^rd campaign in a swing seat- and he is considered a good campaigner with a proven ability to raise money. 
• District 64 – (D) Leonard B. Lacey/(R) Paul Milde
  • Milde has run two unsuccessful campaigns in the past but has the determination to win. While he didn’t self-fund as he did in past campaigns, his business experience, board appointments and community relationships have made him a strong candidate. Leonard Lacey faced an uphill battle but ran a strong campaign. 
• District 65 – (D) Josh Cole/(R) Lee Peters
  • Josh Cole, who lost his re-election in 2021 to Del. Durant (running for Senate) decided to run for this open seat once again. While on paper, the district is more Democratic after redistricting, Lee Peters is the Sherrif in Stafford County which had made this competitive district against two elected officials an interesting one. 
• District 71 – (D) Jessica Anderson/(R) Amanda Batten*
  • Del. Batten is a strong republican candidate and legislator. While on paper, the district is considered swing with a Republican lean, the Democratic candidate had a chance to win. 
• District 75 – (D) Stephen Miller-Pitts/(R) Carrie Coyner*
  • This district leans Republican, but in October, the Democratic caucus decided to give Miller-Pitts about $500,000 to make a late splash in this district. Del. Coyner, running for her 3^rd term, is known as a moderate who works hard for her district and is an impressive campaigner, but Democrats saw an opportunity in the Dobbs environment.
• **District 82 – (D) Kimberly Pope Adams/(R) Kim Taylor* – UNDECIDED
  • Del. Taylor is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents. She surprised the political establishment when she won a Dem leaning district in 2021. While the district became less Democratic in redistricting, it is still seen as a tough seat for Republicans. The race will come down to Petersburg, a Democratic city that has gained a lot of attention and resources from the Youngkin administration. Kimberly Pope Adams, who won a 3-way democratic primary in June, was considered the strongest Dem candidate due to her community connections in Dinwiddie, the traditionally republican part of the district. 
• District 84 –(D) Nadarius Clark/(R) Michael Dillender
  • Nadarius Clark had to resign his House seat in April in order to run and move in this newly created swing district. The district is considered 50/50 and both candidates worked hard and raised healthy campaign accounts to compete for this district.  
• District 89 – (D) Karen Jenkins/(R) Baxter Ennis
  • Karen Jenkins is a school board member and wife of Del. Clint Jenkins (running for State Senate). While the district leans Republican, Democrats believed Karen was a strong candidate to run on the same ticket as her husband. 
• District 94 – (D) Phil Hernandez/(R) Andy Pittman
  • This district leans pretty heavily Democratic and Hernandez outraised his opponent, 2-1.  
• District 97 – (D) Michael Feggans/(R) Karen Greenhalgh*
  • The district is considered very swingy- in the last 3 election cycles- the incumbent has fallen to their challenger. It voted blue in the 2022 congressional race and red in the 2021 gubernatorial race.  As with Del. Taylor, Del. Greenhalgh was the other vulnerable Republican incumbent. Michael Feggans, a veteran, is considered a top recruit by the House Democrats.